Transforming innovation for sustainability

The urgency of charting pathways to sustainability that keep human societies within a "safe operating space" has now been clarified. Crises in climate, food, biodiversity, and energy are already playing out across local and global scales and are set to increase as we approach critical thresholds. Drawing together recent work from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, the Tellus Institute, and the STEPS Centre, this commentary article argues that ambitious Sustainable Development Goals are now required along with major transformation, not only in policies and technologies, but in modes of innovation themselves, to meet them. As examples of dryland agriculture in East Africa and rural energy in Latin America illustrate, such "transformative innovation" needs to give far greater recognition and power to grassroots innovation actors and processes, involving them within an inclusive, multi-scale innovation politics. The three dimensions of direction, diversity, and distribution along with new forms of "sustainability brokering" can help guide the kinds of analysis and decision making now needed to safeguard our planet for current and future generations

Understanding Governance: pathways to sustainability

The challenges of understanding the governance of dynamic social, technological and environmental systems, and their implications for sustainability and social justice, are addressed by this paper. Defined broadly as political and institutional relationships and processes, governance is central to the interactions between people, technology and environment; to how policy problems are defined and addressed, to how contested values and priorities are dealt with, and to who gains or loses. The paper suggests some key elements of a ‘pathways’ approach to understand the current governance of social-technological-ecological dynamics, and to inform new governance arrangements that might better meet sustainability goals and poorer people’s priorities. Drawing on a selective review of a vast literature on political systems, the paper identifies a number of key challenges and responses. These include recognising interactions and networks between multiple institutions, public, private and in civil society, across local and global scales; acknowledging poor people’s agency amidst power relations, and addressing the politics of knowledge, risk and uncertainty. Moreover, dealing with highly dynamic systems that different people ‘frame’ in different ways requires further moves to embrace the more recent insights of adaptive, deliberative and reflexive governance. Only by combining elements across these approaches in particular political-historical contexts, we suggest, can we make progress in understanding how governance might shape pathways to sustainability.ESR

The Diabetes Care Project: an Australian multicentre, cluster randomised controlled trial [study protocol]

Background: Diabetes mellitus is an increasingly prevalent metabolic disorder that is associated with substantial disease burden. Australia has an opportunity to improve ways of caring for the growing number of people with diabetes, but this may require changes to the way care is funded, organised and delivered. To inform how best to care for people with diabetes, and to identify the extent of change that is required to achieve this, the Diabetes Care Project (DCP) will evaluate the impact of two different, evidence-based models of care (compared to usual care) on clinical quality, patient and provider experience, and cost. Methods/Design: The DCP uses a pragmatic, cluster randomised controlled trial design. Accredited general practices that are situated within any of the seven Australian Medicare Locals/Divisions of General Practice that have agreed to take part in the study were invited to participate. Consenting practices will be randomly assigned to one of three treatment groups for approximately 18 to 22 months: (a) control group (usual care); (b) Intervention 1 (which tests improvements that could be made within the current funding model, facilitated through the use of an online chronic disease management network); or (c) Intervention 2 (which includes the same components as Intervention 1, as well as altered funding to support voluntary patient registration with their practice, incentive payments and a care facilitator). Adult patients who attend the enrolled practices and have established (≥12 month's duration) type 1 diabetes mellitus or newly diagnosed or established type 2 diabetes mellitus are invited to participate. Multiple outcomes will be studied, including changes in glycosylated haemoglobin (primary outcome), changes in other biochemical and clinical metrics, incidence of diabetes-related complications, quality of life, clinical depression, success of tailored care, patient and practitioner satisfaction, and budget sustainability. Discussion: This project responds to a need for robust evidence of the clinical and economic effectiveness of coordinated care for the management of diabetes in the Australian primary care setting. The outcomes of the study will have implications not only for diabetes management, but also for the management of other chronic diseases, both in Australia and overseas

The association between community mental health nursing and hospital admissions for people with serious mental illness: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND:Relapse prevention is an important objective in the management of serious mental illness (SMI). While community mental health nurses (CMHN) might be well-placed to support people with SMI in averting relapse, no systematic reviews have examined this association. AIM:To review the evidence from studies reporting an association between CMHN exposure and hospitalisation of persons living with SMI (a proxy for relapse). METHODS:Searches were undertaken in ten bibliographic databases and two clinical trial registries. We included studies of patients with SMI, where CMHN was the exposure, and the outcome was relapse (i.e. readmission to a psychiatric inpatient facility). Quality assessment of included studies was completed using two risk-of-bias measures. RESULTS:Two studies met the inclusion criteria. Studies were rated as being of low-moderate methodological quality. There was insufficient evidence to conclude that community mental health nursing reduced the risk of admission to psychiatric inpatient facilities. CONCLUSIONS:The review found no evidence that CMHN was associated with higher or lower odds of admission to psychiatric inpatient facilities among patients with SMI. The findings of the review point to a need for further research to investigate the impact of CMHN exposure and relapse in people with SMI. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION:PROSPERO CRD42017058694

The Potential for Insurance to Mediate Economic Risks in Marine Fisheries

In agriculture there has been a long history of using a levy or an insurance premium to create mutual funds to mediate economic risks to growers due to environmental variability and quarantine pests. In the United States the federal government, through the USDA, continues to underwrite funds (collected by private insurance agents) which are used to protect contributors from the effects of extreme weather and pest and disease losses. In Europe mutual funds such as the Kartoffelafgiftsfonden in Denmark and Potatopol in the Netherlands have been developed to mediate risks from some potato diseases in different ways. This paper uses established methods of economic risk management from agriculture and applies these to marine fisheries to demonstrate how financial risks could be mediated by the creation of insurance funds. Through the use of probabilistic estimates of future catches and prices, and the risk of depletion across various scenarios, we investigate how government and industry participation in creating and managing funds may encourage increased protection of fisheries, and compliance and enforcement for fishery regulations. The paper also explores how fund exposure may be reduced by the application of reinsurance from commercial insurers for the upper tail of high cost, low probability events, such as total fishery collapse

On the role of visualisation in fisheries management

Environmental change has focused the attention of scientists, policy makers and the wider public on the uncertainty inherent in interactions between people and the environment. Governance in fisheries is required to involve stakeholder participation and to be more inclusive in its remit, which is no longer limited to ensuring a maximum sustainable yield from a single stock but considers species and habitat interactions, as well as social and economic issues. The increase in scope, complexity and awareness of uncertainty in fisheries management has brought methodological and institutional changes throughout the world. Progress towards comprehensive, explicit and participatory risk management in fisheries depends on effective communication. Graphic design and data visualisation have been underused in fisheries for communicating science to a wider range of stakeholders. In this paper, some of the general aspects of designing visualisations of modelling results are discussed and illustrated with examples from the EU funded MYFISH project. These infographics were tested in stakeholder workshops, and improved through feedback from that process. It is desirable to convey not just modelling results but a sense of how reliable various models are. A survey was developed to judge reliability of different components of fisheries modelling: the quality of data, the quality of knowledge, model validation efforts, and robustness to key uncertainties. The results of these surveys were visualized for ten different models, and presented alongside the main case study.Versión del editor1,86

Can video improve grant review quality and lead to more reliable ranking?

Multimedia video is rapidly becoming mainstream, and many studies indicate that it is a more effective communication medium than text. In this project we AIM to test if videos can be used, in place of text-based grant proposals, to improve communication and increase the reliability of grant ranking. We will test if video improves reviewer comprehension (AIM 1), if external reviewer grant scores are more consistent with video (AIM 2), and if mock Australian Research Council (ARC) panels award more consistent scores when grants are presented as videos (AIM 3). This will be the first study to evaluate the use of video in this application. The ARC reviewed over 3500 Discovery Project applications in 2015, awarding 635 Projects. Selecting the “best” projects is extremely challenging. This project will improve the selection process by facilitating the transition from text-based to video-based proposals. The impact could be profound: Improved video communication should streamline the grant preparation and review processes, enable more reliable ranking of applications, and more accurate identification of the “next big innovations”

Can video improve grant review quality and lead to more reliable ranking?

Multimedia video is rapidly becoming mainstream, and many studies indicate that it is a more effective communication medium than text. In this project we AIM to test if videos can be used, in place of text-based grant proposals, to improve communication and increase the reliability of grant ranking. We will test if video improves reviewer comprehension (AIM 1), if external reviewer grant scores are more consistent with video (AIM 2), and if mock Australian Research Council (ARC) panels award more consistent scores when grants are presented as videos (AIM 3). This will be the first study to evaluate the use of video in this application. The ARC reviewed over 3500 Discovery Project applications in 2015, awarding 635 Projects. Selecting the “best” projects is extremely challenging. This project will improve the selection process by facilitating the transition from text-based to video-based proposals. The impact could be profound: Improved video communication should streamline the grant preparation and review processes, enable more reliable ranking of applications, and more accurate identification of the “next big innovations”

Co-design with aligned and non-aligned knowledge partners: implications for research and coproduction of sustainable food systems

We discuss two different strategies to initiate a process of identifying a focused sustainability challenge, and co-defining and co-designing alternative pathways to more sustainable food systems. One strategy was based on working with a relatively closely aligned network of private sector, civil society and academic organisations, whilst the other involved working with a more plural, non-aligned group, ranging from representatives of agricultural social movements, through to the domestic seed industry and government officials, to academic agronomists. This paper reflects on the distinct benefits and challenges involved in each strateg

Best practices for the provision of prior information for Bayesian stock assessment

This manual represents a review of the potential sources and methods to be applied when providing prior information to Bayesian stock assessments and marine risk analysis. The manual is compiled as a product of the EC Framework 7 ECOKNOWS project (www.ecoknows.eu). The manual begins by introducing the basic concepts of Bayesian inference and the role of prior information in the inference. Bayesian analysis is a mathematical formalization of a sequential learning process in a probabilistic rationale. Prior information (also called ”prior knowledge”, ”prior belief”, or simply a ”prior”) refers to any existing relevant knowledge available before the analysis of the newest observations (data) and the information included in them. Prior information is input to a Bayesian statistical analysis in the form of a probability distribution (a prior distribution) that summarizes beliefs about the parameter concerned in terms of relative support for different values. Apart from specifying probable parameter values, prior information also defines how the data are related to the phenomenon being studied, i.e. the model structure. Prior information should reflect the different degrees of knowledge about different parameters and the interrelationships among them. Different sources of prior information are described as well as the particularities important for their successful utilization. The sources of prior information are classified into four main categories: (i) primary data, (ii) literature, (iii) online databases, and (iv) experts. This categorization is somewhat synthetic, but is useful for structuring the process of deriving a prior and for acknowledging different aspects of it. A hierarchy is proposed in which sources of prior information are ranked according to their proximity to the primary observations, so that use of raw data is preferred where possible. This hierarchy is reflected in the types of methods that might be suitable – for example, hierarchical analysis and meta-analysis approaches are powerful, but typically require larger numbers of observations than other methods. In establishing an informative prior distribution for a variable or parameter from ancillary raw data, several steps should be followed. These include the choice of the frequency distribution of observations which also determines the shape of prior distribution, the choice of the way in which a dataset is used to construct a prior, and the consideration related to whether one or several datasets are used. Explicitly modelling correlations between parameters in a hierarchical model can allow more effective use of the available information or more knowledge with the same data. Checking the literature is advised as the next approach. Stock assessment would gain much from the inclusion of prior information derived from the literature and from literature compilers such as FishBase (www.fishbase.org), especially in data-limited situations. The reader is guided through the process of obtaining priors for length–weight, growth, and mortality parameters from FishBase. Expert opinion lends itself to data-limited situations and can be used even in cases where observations are not available. Several expert elicitation tools are introduced for guiding experts through the process of expressing their beliefs and for extracting numerical priors about variables of interest, such as stock–recruitment dynamics, natural mortality, maturation, and the selectivity of fishing gears. Elicitation of parameter values is not the only task where experts play an important role; they also can describe the process to be modelled as a whole. Information sources and methods are not mutually exclusive, so some combination may be used in deriving a prior distribution. Whichever source(s) and method(s) are chosen, it is important to remember that the same data should not be used twice. If the 2 | ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 328 plan is to use the data in the analysis for which the prior distribution is needed, then the same data cannot be used in formulating the prior. The techniques studied and proposed in this manual can be further elaborated and fine-tuned. New developments in technology can potentially be explored to find novel ways of forming prior distributions from different sources of information. Future research efforts should also be targeted at the philosophy and practices of model building based on existing prior information. Stock assessments that explicitly account for model uncertainty are still rare, and improving the methodology in this direction is an important avenue for future research. More research is also needed to make Bayesian analysis of non-parametric models more accessible in practice. Since Bayesian stock assessment models (like all other assessment models) are made from existing knowledge held by human beings, prior distributions for parameters and model structures may play a key role in the processes of collectively building and reviewing those models with stakeholders. Research on the theory and practice of these processes will be needed in the future